The world is likely to be "multi-nodal" based on partnership, said US scholar

By Harry Wu, 21st Century Business Herald, SFC

“A multi-nodal situation based on partnerships rather than alliances is more likely to emerge in the world,” as multipolarity is flawed in today's highly complex international relations, said Brantly Womack, Senior Faculty Fellow at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald at the 6th Symposium on Global Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance  in Sanya, Hainan.

In his view, political polarization in the United States has affected policymaking, with little cooperation between Republicans and Democrats. The US Congress is struggling to function effectively, while the President can do things that are not controlled by Congress but are supported by the Supreme Court, and policies lack coherence.

The United States is facing a complex and highly unstable situation. Womack said that this situation is difficult to understand from within, and even more difficult to understand from the outside. The complexity and instability of US policies, tariffs, military actions, and various other factors make it difficult for other countries to understand and rely on specific US foreign policies.

A "multi-nodal" situation is more likely to emerge

Now every country is more aware of the uncertainty of global politics, and the United States is unlikely to return to its state five years ago. Womack emphasized that in this situation, countries face greater uncertainty. They cannot control this uncertainty by making US policies more stable, because this is beyond their control.

But they can control this uncertainty by building partnerships with other countries that also face uncertainty. Therefore, in this sense, a "multi-nodal" situation based on partnerships rather than alliances is more likely to emerge. This pattern fits the current situation, and whether it will actually emerge remains to be seen, depending on the countries involved. Womack emphasized that a "multi-nodal" world based on partnerships is more likely and more necessary than in previous years.

While the idea of a multipolar world order is better than a bipolar or unipolar system, Womack believes that it is also flawed. Multipolarity implies that some countries are "poles" while others are not. Today's world is very complex, and every country holds its own views and makes its own decisions in its international relations.

In his view, the concept of a "multi-nodal world" system allows us to see the complexity of relations between countries acting as "nodes." Each node's perspective is determined by its strength and position, and all parties are trying to reduce uncertainty in their relationships. Countries vary in size and location, but they are all actors in the global network, not mere bystanders.

Regional cooperation is flourishing

Driven by factors such as tariffs, the US dollar has weakened significantly this year. In the long term, the greenback still faces considerable pressure.

Womack is very concerned about the future of the US dollar. Not only the current administration, but US fiscal policy for a considerable period has been based on the export of dollars, which requires the dollar's credibility and its current value in turn.

The US is currently exerting significant pressure on other countries. Womack believes that some of these countries are now beginning to think that they should perhaps distance themselves from the US to some extent, wary of more debt and dollar depreciation.

Under the impact of protectionism, many international organizations have also been weakened in recent years. Womack observes that the pillar institutions of the international system over the past 70 years are indeed facing a more challenging situation, which means that countries must consider building more connections with their neighbors, forming regional organizations, while continuing to support existing global institutions.

Womack cites the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as undoubtedly a good thing for participating members. It does not exclude any country, advocates inclusiveness, and this type of organization is best suited to the post-hegemonic global landscape. "RCEP is an excellent concept, and I'm glad that China is a member," said Womack. He hopes that China will join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which will not only consolidate China's position in the region but also strengthen its position in the global economy.